by At 1pm today, or 4am in Bucharest, I attempted to listen to the news on Romanian radio. My Romanian just allowed me to discern that one of the items was the hot-off-the-press Brexit poll, giving Leave a ten-point lead. That poll is by a company called ORB, and their methodology leads me to conclude that it’s complete garbage just like their previous polls, some of which gave Remain a whopping lead. (I’d love to see polling banned altogether in the last four weeks before an election or referendum.) But I think there has been a genuine move to the Leave side, and I’d now put Britain’s chances of leaving the EU at 50:50, perhaps even a shade higher. The betting markets still make Remain the favourites by about a 70:30 margin, but I don’t buy that. The high rollers are backing Remain; the mums and dads with a few quid to spare are backing Leave. Many people treat their bets as votes (and likewise their votes as bets) and a clear majority of bets are on Leave. I’d bet on Leave myself, because I think it represents great value, if it wasn’t for all the complications involved in setting up an online account in some non-sterling foreign currency (I say non-sterling because I expect the pound to plummet in the event of a Leave win).
The zeitgeist is very much with Leave, and that’s hard to combat. The scare tactics by the Remain side certainly aren’t cutting through. They needed to frame staying in the EU as something positive to vote for. In fact as I watch from the other side of the world, the level of debate from both sides has been appalling. What’s the plan if the UK stay in? What’s the plan if they/we decide to pull out? Maybe none of that matters. Maybe people aren’t interested in the facts anyway. All I hear about is even more dreadful immigrants if we stay and a third-world economy if we leave.
Dad registered with hours to spare before the original deadline, and he might well vote “out” (he happens to be in the UK so he’ll vote at the local polling station). I suspect my brother will vote “out”. I voted “in”, and I’m not ashamed to say that was largely out of self-interest. [Yikes. Another poll out with a ten-point lead for Leave. Phew, it’s the same one. Please tell me it’s the same one. See, they shouldn’t have polls at all this close to the vote.] This plan of mine isn’t just a plan, it’s a dream. It’s a long time since I had a dream with a realistic chance of becoming reality. If Britain wasn’t in the EU, my dream wouldn’t exist. I readily admit I’m too selfish to vote against my dream. I might still be able to live and work in the EU for some time because the “divorce” is unlikely to be immediate, but I don’t know. Nobody knows.
Another reason to vote “in”, for my mind, is that the “in” people seem nicer. I bet most of the English hooligans in Marseille are voting “out”. The CAPS LOCK “BREXIT!” brigade on online forums are mostly “outers”. The people who didn’t want voting extended after the website crashed (their stupid fault for leaving it till the last minute; sod ’em) were mostly “outers”, which is ironic considering how much they keep banging on about democracy. Most importantly the Conservatives who are likely to take over in the event of Brexit don’t seem particularly warm and fluffy, not even Boris Johnson.
Despite all that, I wonder how I’d vote if I still lived and worked in, say, Peterborough. It’s so long since I lived in the UK that I was only just eligible to vote. It’s six years since I even set foot in the country. If I’d seen the influx of Polish plumbers first-hand, I might well be voting out now.
Romania lost 2-1 to France this morning in the first match of Euro 2016. I was impressed with the number of Romanian fans there. I remember all the hype surrounding Euro ’96 which was played in the UK. It was huge, and all played with the catchy tune in the background that talked about thirty years of hurt (since England won the World Cup). It’s now fifty years. And talking of the nineties, two-hit wonders Ace of Base are playing on Romanian radio.