A cluster of random thoughts

I didn’t watch the women’s US Open final, but now wish I had, for the sheer drama alone. Serena is an incredible player but she’s also a bully, with a “Don’t you know who I am?!” attitude. She has a history of using her bullying tactics at the US Open in particular, where she knows the crowd will probably side with her (as, shamefully, they did in this match). This time she also made completely irrelevant comments about being a woman and having a daughter. I’m pleased that Naomi Osaka played great tennis and got over the line, even if Serena and an obnoxious crowd robbed her of that special moment of winning her first grand slam. Osaka even felt the need to apologise for winning. I suppose I shouldn’t feel too sorry for Osaka she took home US$3.8 million, which is a crazy amount just for being rather good at whacking furry yellow objects over a net with a bat.

This year’s US Open has seen its fair share of upsets and retirements; the searing heat has been a major factor in the latter. The biggest shock on the men’s side was Federer’s loss to John Millman. I remember Millman from my first day at Flushing Meadows three years ago. I was queuing with my cousin and his fiancée, and Millman (who I didn’t recognise, but I saw his name tag) was at the next-door kiosk, trying to sort out something quite important for his match that was due to start in half an hour. I thought at the time he was clearly one of the have-nots of tennis. With his win over Federer he’ll make the world’s top 50, and he earns nearly half a million for reaching the quarter-finals, so he’s starting to do quite nicely from the game.

On a different day, Federer would have beaten Millman in straight sets, but on this occasion he wasn’t at his best on the big points. On the same day as this match, I watched the Red Sox beat the Braves by the totally flattering score of 8-2, a game in which they were outplayed for long periods, with the result in serious doubt until the eighth inning. After these two results in different sports, I thought about the importance of clustering and sequencing, in sport (and in life too). There are different concepts from timing, which obviously has a profound impact on results as well  a double fault or a walk can range in importance from meaningless to game-changing depending on when it occurs. Sequencing, or the order in which events happen, is also very important, as is clustering. As a rule, you’re better off if good things happen to you one after the other, but you spread your bad things out a bit. That’s very true in life too we can often handle one issue at a time, but a pile-up of problems can send us into a tailspin. On the other side, achieving a major success (say, a deal with a large record label) relies on a series of positive events happening one after the other. Baseball analysts have tried to figure out what determines effective timing, clustering and sequencing, and the answer (in that sport at least) is very clear: luck.

Politics is one area where clustering is of paramount importance, especially in first-past-the-post systems. The clustering of Democrats in urban areas was a big (and understated) reason for Trump’s win in 2016. Clinton ran up the score in those large cities, making her vote inefficiently distributed. It also affects the other branches of government. Because their opponents are neatly clustered in areas of high density, and because they’re arseholes, the Republicans are able to gerrymander effectively, and that’s why the Dems will need a hefty popular-vote win if they want to take the House in November. Clustering isn’t always bad for political parties, however. If you’re a big party trying to form a government, it harms you, but it’s to your advantage if you’re a small party trying to get some representation in parliament. An interesting case (and a terrible advert for FPTP) was the 2015 UK election, where 3.9 million people voted UKIP but they won just a single seat because they weren’t a dominant force in any geographic area. In the same election, the SNP managed to achieve the best of both worlds, by being entirely “clustered” in Scotland but very unclustered within Scotland. Their 1.5 million votes (half of all votes in Scotland) gave them a whopping 56 of 59 Scottish seats.

I spoke to my parents yesterday. The All Blacks v Argentina game was about to start, and they pointed the camera at the haka. It sounded like a great game. Mum and Dad had just spent a few days in a chilly Moeraki.

Last week I posted about 100 flyers in letterboxes in Dumbrăvița, and I got a reply. Hopefully this week I’ll be starting with a 17-year-old girl and her 9-year-old brother.

Just a quick update…

Today I’ve been reading Station Eleven, a bloody fantastic book by Emily St John Mandel. I’m finding it hard to put down. I did however find time to prepare for tomorrow’s lessons and make a crumble with those plums I picked last weekend (but wouldn’t have done if I’d known someone was watching).

On Friday I heard that John McCain wouldn’t be continuing his brain cancer treatment, and less than 48 hours later he was dead. Although I was very glad that Barack Obama beat him to the presidency, I also felt that McCain would have done a fine job. Picking Sarah Palin as his running mate probably didn’t help his cause though. McCain was a staunch supporter of the Iraq War in 2003 but was seen as a maverick in more recent times; that’s more a reflection of how deeply conservative the Republicans have become than anything else. But his vote against the repeal of Obamacare last year was one of the more dramatic moments of Trump’s presidency to date. I’ve just read that McCain, who lived to 81, is survived by his 106-year-old mother.

Baseball. Yesterday morning I caught the tail-end of the marathon game between the Milwaukee Brewers and Pittsburgh Pirates. It went to 15 innings, finishing at quarter to one in the morning, local time. I was glad to see it because it was once-in-a-blue-moon crazy, and the sort of crazy that can only happen in the National League where the pitcher is forced to bat. The Red Sox, on the other hand, have lost five of their last seven, and are now only seven games ahead of the Yankees in the division race. That’s still a lot, but they have a tough run-in. It isn’t quite over just yet.

Don’t talk about the weather

I’ll soon be having a lesson with my Italian student who’s taking the IELTS exam in three weeks. His country went to the polls at the weekend. I watched John Oliver’s “explanation” of Italy’s political environment on YouTube because he was likely to make as much sense as anyone else. Like many young Italians, my 25-year-old student is a supporter of the Five Star Movement. It was a good result for them. I’m sure he’ll want to talk about the election in the lesson.

Two cancellations on Saturday meant I could go to Piața Badea Cârțan, my favourite market, in the morning. I was thinking, if I can’t do something as simple as this, it almost defeats the purpose of being here. I didn’t get very much: a few filled peppers, various hunks of rather chewy meat, and a sausage. Just one big sausage, as is the norm here.

Last night I spoke to my brother. He looked tired. Washed out. He’s currently in the middle of some kind of instructors’ course which, as he explained in no uncertain terms, he doesn’t see the point of. I imagine it reminded him of school, which for the most part he didn’t see the point of either.

On that note, my lesson with the near-ten-year-old boy on Saturday afternoon didn’t exactly get off to a rip-roaring start. I began by talking about the snow. He said to me in Romanian that “if we’re just going to talk about snow, I’ll die of boredom.” Right. Where do we go from here? I asked him if he wanted me to leave. He didn’t say anything. I then brought out my emergency pack of cards, and we played Last Card. He probably learnt a fair bit in those seven games: jack, queen, king, ace, the names of the suits, “pick up”, “put down”, and so on. He beat me 5-2 and mercifully the lesson was over.

That replacement watch strap I bought in January broke after just 41 days. I couldn’t find my receipt anywhere, quite possibly because I never actually got one (this is Romania), but thankfully they gave me my money back. Hopefully I can get one in Cambridge.

Three games of Scrabble at the weekend and three wins, although I failed to break 400 in any game. I’m sure my play was very sub-optimal.

It’s warming up a bit now.

Timișoara with people!

My friends (or my parents’ friends really) arrived on Tuesday night. It’s been fun having them here in this wonderful city and meeting up with them in breaks between lessons. I feel perfectly comfortable with them. The highlight so far was perhaps eating out on Wednesday night. We ate at Timișoreana in the square. They both had fairly substantial meals while I was lumbered with a hunk of pork on a bone, with horseradish covering about a quarter of the plate. The pork was perfectly fine, but something with it would have been nice. We then went to a decidedly frill-free basementy “restaurant” alongside Piața 700 so I could properly fill up. The staff there were much older, male, and couldn’t speak English. There were no other customers. I had something advertised as sausage and bean soup, but “slop” might have been more accurate. We also had a beer each, and the whole lot came to 20 lei. Four quid. My friends couldn’t believe that. Yesterday, after visiting the Museum of the Revolution, we checked out a street food festival in Parcul Rozelor (the rose garden). Yes, oh-so-trendy “street food” has landed in Timișoara. The festival was sponsored by a bank or insurance company or something awful like that, and it was all basically overpriced mall food. You could hardly get a sandwich for four quid. We couldn’t get away quick enough.

This morning we’ll be going away, but where and how are still very much up in the air. I’m not looking forward to negotiating Timișoara traffic in a strange car on a strange side of the road. I’ll be meeting them at their hotel in just over an hour.

Last Saturday I met up with my student. We had a few drinks at a bar on the storm-stricken bank of the Bega. We spoke Romanian. I sometimes accidentally invented a word like “profesorile”, which she thought was funny.

Watching coverage of the New Zealand election last weekend and seeing people like John Campbell and Russel Norman, I got ever so slightly homesick for the first time since I left a year ago.

I might be starting my new job on Tuesday. More on that next time perhaps, but I’ve really got to go.

Time zones

There’s a lot to get through so please bear with me.

Summer ended last Sunday afternoon and I thought the world might end with it. A freak storm whirled through, splitting tree trunks down the middle, lifting tiles from rooftops, and smashing windows. Debris swirled as if in a washing machine. A large copper sheet flew off the cathedral, whose clock stopped at 3:31. After only 15 minutes, all was calm. I was so lucky to be inside at the time. Tragically eight people lost their lives including five in Timiș district. One person was killed at the zoo by a falling tree, another by the large overhead sign at one of the entrances to Timișoara that crashed down on his car as he was driving. The storm was unforecast; people were just enjoying their Sunday afternoon.

As the storm hit I was making some animal cards for my latest student, a 4½-year-old girl. I’m not sure exactly where my teaching comfort zone is yet, but kindergarten-aged girls aren’t even on the same continent. On Monday I made my way to Dumbrăvița for a one-hour lesson with Alexandra, armed with my animal cards, number cards, and a simple board game that I’d painstakingly drawn out. Alexandra was lovely. But she was shy and didn’t want anything to do with me. When her mother’s request for her to come downstairs was met with “De ce?” (“Why?”) I knew I was in for a tough time. Teaching quickly became secondary to the task of making any sort of connection. Sadly I didn’t have much success. Both her parents were there, and that only made me more self-conscious. Of course, being the first lesson, I didn’t know what she knew, even in her native language. She did know her colours and farm animals in English. Next time (apparently there will be a next time) I’ll probably just bring my laptop and put on some cartoons.

There was a funny moment in one of my lessons on Wednesday. This was my 34th lesson with my first-ever student. We’d done plenty of reading, listening and speaking since November but very little writing. I had three subjects face-down on sheets of paper, and asked him to pick one at random and write about it. “Write about someone you admire.” He didn’t particularly fancy this topic. I told him he could do one of the others instead, but he said, “They’ll all be the same shit.” He was half-joking, and in the end wrote quite a moving paragraph about his aunt.

Yesterday I had a three-hour lesson with a woman just two years younger than me. She was 15 minutes late, which is good going for her. We had what I’d like to think was a fun and productive lesson. Pronunciation Battleships (a game I basically invented) raised a few laughs. It’s like normal Battleships, except the coordinates are pairs of words that almost nobody in the whole of Romania can pronounce, so instead of a square being B3 or F5, it’s roughqueue or bought–fruit. I certainly get some interesting pronunciations of “queue”: I’ve so far had kway, kwee and kwee-wee. I gave her a writing exercise: she had to write about a country she’d like to visit. She picked Australia, full of mountains, museums, castles and beautiful villages. I was flummoxed by this; I didn’t twig that she meant Austria. It was tipping it down outside and I mentioned to her that I had to take the bus to Dumbrăvița for my next lesson (with Matei). At the end of the lesson she offered to drive me there, but only after she did some stuff in town. This was awkward for me – there was obviously no way I’d get to my lesson on time once she’d done her stuff, but she didn’t see that teaching is my job, and being on time for my job is important to me. I’d rather have taken the bus, but I felt it was impolite to refuse her offer. Even the clock in her car was three to four minutes slow – that would drive me insane (a stopped clock or one that showed an obviously wrong time would be much better because I could simply ignore it). I was 15 minutes late, but neither Matei nor his dad seemed to be too bothered. Even though my 35-year-old student lives on a different time zone to me, we get on well. I’ve invited her out for a drink tomorrow at three, so if I leave at ten past I should have heaps of time.

By then, a picture should have emerged from New Zealand’s election. I haven’t followed the run-up much the last three years have seen so many high-profile elections and referendums that I feel electioned out but from what I can tell, people have been far more engaged than last time around. The Jacinda effect is surely a part of that. And this time serious issues that actually matter to people are getting talked about, unlike in that ghastly 2014 campaign. The massive and increasing gap between rich and poor, the housing crisis, immigration, the mental health crisis (let’s not mince words here), education (the burden on teachers in NZ increases every year and they don’t get paid nearly enough), the dairy industry messing up the environment there’s a lot that’s badly wrong. I still expect National to form a government, just.

Some friends from St Ives are coming to Timișoara on Tuesday and are staying for a week. On Friday we’ll head off in a car and go… to be honest we’ve got no idea where. They’ve never been to Romania before, so I probably need to decide. They’re very free-spirited people so it should be fun.

Mum and Dad have both had the flu lately and haven’t been able to shake it off. It’s been sending Dad’s warfarin levels all over the show. They’ve just been put on courses of antibiotics. Let’s hope they do the trick.

I get all the news I need on the weather report

Last week I taught for 16 hours, a new record! The more work I get, the better I feel. It really is that simple. I did have to navigate some fairly heavy seas on Monday night when my new student (yes, she turned up!) wasn’t at the level I’d anticipated. Our conversation was slow going. Time slowed to a crawl. Will she even want to come back? But she did, on both Wednesday and Friday, and will return again on Monday. She’s a student, just 21 or thereabouts, and like so many young women here, she’s very attractive. She was born and bred in Moldova, where the levels of corruption (as she described them) make Romania sound like, well, New Zealand.

This move has been nothing short of life-changing for me. I now have a purpose, a reason to get out of bed in the morning. My work is extremely satisfying, and in between lessons, I can relax in this beautiful city. I’m longer in this vicious cycle of doing things I don’t want to do so I can do more things I don’t want to do, year in, year out. Yeah, I’d still like a few more hours and the extra money that would bring; I’m having to be pretty frugal. I’d like to meet more people, do cultural stuff like go to the theatre, and of course travel. But Romania wasn’t built in a day. Completely overhauling my life will take time.

I try to avoid most political news now. It feels like it’s been wall-to-wall politics for the last three years, and I can’t be the only one who’s had enough. Still, the failure of the Republicans’ zombie-like healthcare repeal bill did put a smile on my face. As for the weather, last Monday night we had an electrical storm which gave us respite from the scorching weather for the rest of the week, but when I look at the seven-day forecast I see a high of 34, another of 36, a quartet of 37s, and even a 38. The title of this post, by the way, is from Simon and Garfunkel’s brilliant The Only Living Boy in New York. I remember one time that song came on the radio as I was about to go through Mt Victoria Tunnel in Wellington on the way home, but I went the long way instead to avoid missing the song.

I spoke to my brother earlier today. It was his 36th birthday on Thursday. He seemed happy for me.

There’s hope

At midnight on Thursday I tuned in to Radio 5 Live for the exit poll. I’d expected a Conservative majority of 50 to 60, but as Big Ben struck ten and the bells of Catedrala Mitropolitană struck twelve, I thought, I bet it’s 100. The projection, that the Tories would fail to win a majority at all, took just about everybody by surprise. That can’t be right, can it? The initial handful of declarations in the North-East did cast some doubt on the predicted seat totals, but they ended up being pretty much bang on. The Tories finished on 318 seats, eight short of an overall majority, and they now have to rely on the DUP, a party from Northern Ireland. And just who are the DUP? The U stands for Unionist, so they want to remain part of the UK (the opposite of Sinn Féin, who don’t even take their seats in parliament). They have strong Protestant links, they’re anti-abortion, anti-gay-marriage, anti-climate-change, and seemingly anti the planet being more than 10,000 years old. Obviously they’re just what Britain needs right now.

But I must admit I was pretty happy with the results. I had high hopes for Theresa May when she became PM last July, but she’s turned out to be hopeless. She speaks only in soundbites, she’s wooden, she lacks warmth and a personality that people can relate to. All of those frailties became glaringly obvious during her awful campaign. May kept repeating her “strong and stable” mantra. Did she borrow that from John Key, I wonder? (Although he said “shtrong and stable”.) One journalist branded her “weak and wobbly” which was closer to the truth. She’s in the wrong job.

As usual in recent times, the Tories neglected the young, which in their eyes are anybody under about 45, but this time they managed to piss off older people too with their “dementia tax” and removal of winter fuel payments to pensioners. They also wanted to bring back fox hunting. Seriously? On the other side Jeremy Corbyn, who had been viewed as little more than a joke by people across the political spectrum, ran a good campaign. He looked comfortable in his own skin, he was approachable, he actually looked like he gave a shit about people. As a result, turnout among under-35s was up sharply, and they voted in large numbers for Labour.

May called the snap election because she thought the Tories would win a stonking great majority and they’d be able to ram through a hard Brexit and whatever else they wanted. Her arrogance backfired spectacularly; she has been greatly weakened. For all of us who dream of a fairer society in Britain and elsewhere, there’s still a long way to go the Tories got 43% of the vote across Britain after all but this is a good start.

Between them the Conservatives and Labour polled in the low eighties, so this really was a return to two-party politics which the awful first-past-the-post system encourages. It would be fantastic if some sort of PR could be introduced (New Zealand-style MMP would work well), but I’m not holding my breath. John Cleese tweeted that he wouldn’t vote at all because he lived in Kensington, a safe Tory seat. In the event Kensington was the very last seat to declare following multiple recounts, and Labour scored a major upset with a razor-thin 20-vote win. It goes to show you never can tell.

A soggy time

Eurovision will be starting in an hour. It’ll be the first time I’ve watched it with non-English commentary. I don’t expect I’ll see it through to end (a shame because the end, where they do the voting, is the most interesting bit). The last time I saw it my grandmother was still alive and I wrote about it on my previous blog. Gosh, that brings back memories. I miss her.

I’m currently watching Simona Halep in the final of the Madrid Open.

This is the third wet weekend of wet weather and wet weddings in Timișoara. Yes, in Romania getting married is still something people do. Now that the season is upon us, I see and hear about half a dozen convoys every Saturday. Last night we also had a fairly major thunderstorm.

It hasn’t been a disastrous week by any means, with 12½ hours of lessons, but that number still needs to rise. My Skype student isn’t the big provider of work that she used to be. The Who Wants to Be a Millionaire? games with my nine-year-old student seem to be a hit. I’ve had some useful advice from my students on where to go when my parents arrive here only four weeks from now.

Emmanuel Macron won the French election by a near two-to-one margin; it was even more decisive than I expected. Hopefully that will bring some stability to Europe, at least temporarily. Theresa May has been a disappointment to me all you get from her are substance-free words. Very little action. But she’ll probably win a stonking great majority in next month’s election because she has no competent opposition outside Scotland. And as for Donald Trump, it’s all massively entertaining, if only it wasn’t so real. And dangerous.

Painful

I’ll be seeing the ear, nose and throat specialist on Monday, and not before time. I’m suffering from severe sinus pain which kept me awake half of last night. The pressure and pain move from my left sinuses to my right, sometimes causing my eyes to puff up slightly. This isn’t as bad as a spell of excruciating attacks of pain I endured in 2008, but it isn’t much fun. I’m using a saline nasal spray and applying a hot wet towel every now and then, but that only gives me temporary relief. I might need to have an operation.

On Monday I saw the allergist again. I understood what she said apart from one word which sounded like “orele” that she repeated over and over. I’ve experienced this situation quite often, where I understand pretty much everything apart from one crucial word. I recognised orele as a Romanian word, meaning “the hours”, but I couldn’t see how that made sense in context. Eventually I twigged that she wasn’t saying a word at all, but rather an abbreviation: ORL, short for otorinolaringologie. A few weeks ago I went to the TV shop (I lost my reception for a second time) and the woman at the counter asked me for my “buletinul”. Wha-ha, poftim? Er, bulletin? News? What have I got on me that possibly be news? I dragged out my TV and internet contract. Buletinul, she repeated. She sounded quite impatient. Uh, I really haven’t a clue what you’re asking for. “Cartea de identitate, you pillock!” Ah, gotcha.

Tomorrow I should be starting with a new student, and I’m unclear as to who it will be. I think it’ll be a nine-year-old boy. I’ll have to go to Dumbrăvița, a town on the outskirts of Timișoara, and the lesson is due to last two hours. How on earth a kid of that age is supposed to cope with two hours straight I have no idea. Assuming the lesson actually happens It’ll be a totally new experience for me. I’ve never taught kids before.

In just two hours’ time the trigger will be pulled on Article 50. It’s funny how news events bring an obscure term like “Article 50” into public consciousness. As I look out the window now, I see nine flags, four of which are EU flags. Sometimes I see EU umbrellas and EU bumper stickers. Whether Brexit turns out to be good or bad (and we won’t know that for a couple of decades), Britain already seems a world away from the rest of the EU and they haven’t even left yet.

This is a marathon, not a sprint

It’s 9:15 on a Sunday morning; we’ve just put our clocks forward an hour. Here in the west of Romania, clock time is already some way ahead of solar time even without the benefit of daylight savings, so we can look forward to some long evenings. Tonight it won’t get dark till around eight. Half-marathon runners are now streaming outside my window to the sound of whistles from spectators as well as chanting from the cathedral and clattering trams. After a week of stunning weather, with temperatures reaching the mid-twenties, it’s an overcast morning and the wind is picking up. An Easter market has started up in the square. This year is unusual in that Eastern Orthodox Easter falls on the same day as Western Easter.

I had a slightly frustrating week on the work front: 11 hours when I’d hoped for 14. I still need to find more students. My website, mainly for promoting Skype lessons, is up and running, but promoting it is no easy task. I still need to get business cards printed. And I may have no choice but to risk putting up some more ads.

I still need to meet more people. That’s probably my biggest challenge right now. My tennis-playing friend seems to have lost interest in me. And there are still parts of this city I’ve yet to see: the green forest and zoo, the Banat museum, the Communism museum, and one or two others. This afternoon I might try one of the purple bikes that are stationed around the city. For some reason I thought they were expensive but they’re actually free for under an hour.

I’ve booked my flights to London. I leave on 11th April and return on Easter Sunday, the 16th.

Donald Trump’s attempt to jettison Obamacare and replace it with … what? … failed miserably and for that I’m glad.