by I’ve got the mountain man look pretty much down now, and best of all, I’ve got an excuse not to change it. No haircuts for the foreseeable future.
Jacinda Ardern and the New Zealand government didn’t mess about. NZ’s confirmed cases tipped over into three figures – a big rise on the previous day – and bam! They’ll be under lockdown in less than 36 hours. This decision will probably save thousands of lives. Just hours before the announcement I’d spoken to my parents about their planned trip to Moeraki.
This evening my student remarked with some amusement that I repeatedly used “we” to talk about Romania and Romanians. You’re becoming one of us! I suppose I am. This is my life now.
The latest update of “our” confirmed cases was ugly reading. They were up by a third in 24 hours to nearly 600. This is bending the curve all right, but in the wrong direction. One in nine of the previous day’s tests had a positive outcome. We’ve also now had seven deaths. My student was, however, very complimentary of Raed Arafat, a doctor of Palestinian origin, who is masterminding the coronavirus crisis in Romania.
Tonight I’ll post two charts. First there’s a zoomed-in graph of the current situation, and then there’s a zoomed-out “what if” chart with two possibilities for what might happen in two weeks’ time. If we set off on that horrendous trajectory that I’ve marked “?!?!”, we’ll have 50,000 cases by then and a likely death toll in the high four figures, just like Italy have currently. Under the more optimistic option, we’ll have a tenth as many cases and fatalities.
The clock has just struck 10pm, and I’ve just heard a tannoy announcement in the street telling people they need to return home. We’re under curfew. It’s currently sleeting.
Boris Johnson will be addressing the UK shortly. I expect him to finally mandate measures to slow the spread of the virus, instead of just advising them.
Update: That’s just what he’s done. I just wish he’d done it at least two weeks ago.
