by I arrived in Romania just before the last US election – I watched the results come through while I was staying in that hotel room on the other side of the river – and we’re now in the last two months before the next election. Jeez, have I really been in Romania all that time? Almost ten percent of my life? That’s nuts.
So who’s going to win? Most people are saying Trump, either because they are part of his cult and according to them he’s the best!!! – a winner!!!, or because 2016 is still etched firmly in their minds and they fear the worst. They’re going with their gut, and maybe their gut will be right. Those who are more dispassionate, and look at the numbers, are making Biden the favourite. He’s in better shape in the polls than Hillary Clinton, who (and people forget this) only just lost.
There’s not that long to go now – early voting has already started in some states – and Biden’s national polling is good. A ton of polls were reported on Wednesday and they were mostly favourable for him. He’s up by a smidgen over seven points, and the race has been stable. That’s because it’s largely a referendum on Trump, and people’s opinions on Trump are just about set in stone. If it were a referendum, decided by the popular vote, Biden would be an enormous favourite. But of course it ain’t, and the state polling is about three points closer. Biden could easily win the popular vote by more than the 3.9% margin Obama had in 2012 – which isn’t even that close – and still lose the election. What a ridiculous system.
The thing about Trump is that he’s stooped to such depths so many times that nobody bats an eyelid anymore. Encourage people to vote twice? Call soldiers who died in WW1 “losers” and “suckers”? With a normal, half-way human president, those comments would be scandalous – let’s face it, they’re both obscene – but with Trump you just add them to the pile.
The debates are still to come. The economic situation could well improve a bit. Coronavirus might not be as bad by early November, or perhaps more likely, people will have got used to it being bad. Perhaps Trump will announce a vaccine or miracle cure on 1st November. There might even be a James Comey–style bombshell in the final days. All of these things could change the race, or not. (It’s crazy that we’re even talking in these terms about someone who has been worse than useless in dealing with a pandemic that has killed about 190,000 Americans, but here we are.)
The Democrats have raised boatloads of money, and they seem to be spending it more wisely in the swing states than four years ago. They’re leaving nothing to chance. But still, Trump could be re-elected. For all the talk of the election being rigged, if Trump does get back in I’m guessing the deciding factor will be the Democrats’ inability to find someone younger and more dynamic, while still being perfectly “electable”. Literally nobody in that mould – out of about two dozen candidates – ran for the nomination. Biden is probably their best shot.
That pigeon laid a second egg in that cubby hole in the wall of my apartment. If I get really hungry…
