by On the first day of spring we caught some more of the US Open before making our way from Alexandra to my parents’ second home in Moeraki. The Pig Root was almost free of traffic. I was hoping we could have stopped in the lovely village of Ophir – rhyming with loafer and gopher and chauffeur – but no such luck as Mum was driving. We did pass through Ophir at least, and I managed to take one fuzzy picture out of the moving car. I could even have dropped in on my friend in Naseby again, but my parents were keen to press on. I spotted several ex-schools, underlining the great importance placed on education in the late 19th century, even in the most remote parts. Teaching was a highly valued profession. That was then, this is now. We reached Moeraki in what felt like no time.
Back on to the US Open. This year it’s on normal TV – a channel called Duke – and that’s allowed Mum to get right into it. She’s been filling out drawsheets as I used to do. The coverage on Duke is aggravating – they flit between matches at the most inopportune times, and sometimes give you a split screen showing two matches at once and you can’t properly see either of them. We went for a walk along the beach when the tennis was over, then finished off the previous night’s curry with some extra rice while watching TV. Again. Endless bloody TV. The Repair Shop – a British programme where members of the public get items of great sentimental value restored – is actually worth watching. This time there was an old Singer sewing machine, an extremely valuable painting of Henrietta mourning her husband Charles I after his execution, and a yellow submarine toy from the Beatles film. As the submarine was beautifully restored, Dad and I talked paint colours. All the veridians and sap greens and leaf greens and cadmium yellows and burnt siennas. Dad was a great user of burnt sienna early in his career when rust and abandonment were his big thing. After the Repair Shop was a fly-on-the-wall documentary about life on a cruise ship – my idea of hell. Passengers on the ship were called sailors – ugh.
The next morning was foggy – good weather for watching tennis. In the early afternoon, the match Mum had been looking forward to – the all-Serbian third-round battle between Djokovic and Djere – finally got under way. Djere djumped all over a subdjued Djokovic in the first two sets, but he ran out of djuice and Djokovic got the djob done in five sets. Not exactly plain sailing. While that match was on, the 33-year-old Romanian Sorana Cîrstea completed a gutsy three-set win over fourth-seeded Elena Rybakina. She has won again today, beating Belinda Bencic in straight sets, to make the last eight. The plan had been to go back to Geraldine after the Djokovic match, but because it went so long, Mum and Dad decided to stay a second night in Moeraki rather than drive back in the dark. I didn’t mind that – Mum is more relaxed in Moeraki than at home. We picked up fish (elephant fish) and chips from the very popular tavern in Hampden. More goes on in Hampden, where people actually live, than in Moeraki where most homes are holiday homes.
We played another game of Skip-Bo. I won, making the overall scores 4-4-4. That night when I was awake in bed, I attempted some discrete probability problems in my head. Dad had failed to win any of the last six games. A particular player failing to win six straight games has a probability of just under 9%, assuming all players have an equal chance in each game. That was straightforward. The chance that twelve games would split 4-4-4? When you don’t even have pen and paper at your disposal, that’s much harder to work out. I needed the 12th row of Pascal’s Triangle to even make a start. In the end I came up with a figure of a little under 7%, which felt about right. These after-the-fact probability calculations are a bit weird because the chance that something notable happens is always a lot higher. This can have serious real-life implications when determining, for instance, the severity of a flood. When you hear “one in 50 years”, be skeptical. They tend to look at how much rain fell in the wettest 5 minutes, then the wettest 15 minutes, then half an hour, an hour, 3 hours, 6 hours, and so on. Each of these figures is compared to historical records, then they take whatever of those time periods gives the highest one-in-x value. That’s how you get one-in-50-year floods every other month. Climate change isn’t exactly helping there either.
Yesterday we visited my aunt in Timaru – back on the other side of the 45th parallel – on the way back from Moeraki. We’d covered 1300 km on our circuit around the coast and up and down the passes. It was a good trip, helped hugely by the weather and lack of tourists. When we were back in Geraldine, my cousin dropped by with her daughter – they’d been skiing at Fox Peak. My time in New Zealand is rapidly coming to a close.
